Warranties
Life offers limited guarantees; the only surety is that of
its end. It is the lone truth that ought to drive each one to make wiser
choices and rational decisions. At the same time life itself exemplifies
change, growth and revolution. Effort and endurance are options, favorable
outcomes from them aren’t. All human endeavors involve risks, some more than
others. The potential that an action will lead to loss, failure and damage
exemplifies the urgency of making the right choice at the accurate moment in
the suitable situation. Risks will always exist and the fear of diving in may
be deemed sensible, however rational and sound judgment with analysis of the
aftermath usually works towards near warranties.
Gavin de Becker insisted that true fear is the biggest gift
of all. It is a survival signal that sounds solely in the presence of real danger.
Fear directs fitting action to combat the mortal or non-human assaulter. It
indeed prompts hesitation to leap into unfamiliar and unidentified situations. Factual
fear is based on rational and lucid analysis while irrational fears are
baseless, unreasonable and often prejudiced. Rationality is again a personal
judgment; and fears can be very subjective. Often collective irrational fears
get adjudged as sanity. One must always take into consideration every bit of
evidence to make wise choices and lessen the risk involved.
Decision-making
While selection of an outfit, a restaurant, a house, career,
job or a spouse; all seem taxing; many decisions call for even more complex adjudication
processes. There is always interplay of clashes between different options and
the severity of the negative outcome qualifies as a higher risk. The ideal
process would be to evaluate all the outcomes, weigh the negative and positive
values and assess the probabilities of each. A pilot who has to make an
emergency landing or defense personnel evading a terror attack is making
complex decisions. Their selection even though seemingly optimal may not be
realistic enough to achieve; and while realistic, they still don't assure optimal
outcomes.
Mathematics of probability
Probability is defined by the certainty of outcomes. When a
child studies, he has higher chances of passing an exam and if one prepares for
that interview there is greater probability of bagging that job. If there were
only one lone opportunity, one would take smaller risks and toil harder to
assure a favorable outcome (passing the exam or the job interview for instance).
If there are several chances with little to lose, one raises the bet and
magnifies the positives while minimizing the risk.
Myopic thinking
If you stand atop a multistoried building and fail to see
the depth before you and jump, your chances of survival are near zero. Failure
to see beyond immediate gains is classical for those who smoke, drink, gamble,
trade, game and bet in excess. They take too many risks with their health,
finances, relationships, and above all, their character. Myopic outlook
prevents one from taking heed of threats that would impact one at a later time
period albeit worse so and irrevocably.
Luck
It’s not uncommon for people to believe that they can
succeed in life without putting in effort; they minimize the risk of failure on
baseless presumptions of luck and fortune on their side. They risk their
success and respect, and lose out on opportunities for financial, interpersonal
and intellectual growth.
- Gamble involves high cost with an intended, but low chance of a big gain
- A lottery ticket embraces quite low cost but very low chances of a big gain
- A bank fixed deposit involves no cost but guarantees gain (smaller though)
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